In this blog post, we take an in-depth look at whether Israel’s airstrikes on Iran were simply retaliation or an attempt to change the regime. (As of June 16, 2025)

Israel’s airstrikes on Iran: why now?

Is the peaceful world we have lived in coming to an end? Israel recently launched a large-scale military attack on Iran, and Iran responded with retaliatory strikes. This incident is not a simple conflict, but a significant event that could affect not only the future of the Middle East but also the international order as a whole. We will summarize why this happened at this point in time and what the future developments are likely to be.

The largest air strike in history

In the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched an air strike on Iran with more than 200 fighter jets. More than 330 bombs were dropped on about 100 targets, killing many Iranian nuclear facilities, key government figures, and nuclear scientists. The attack is considered a precision strike, and photos of the attack have been released, drawing the attention of the international community.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that “Israel has made a grave mistake” and promised strong retaliation. Iran responded by attacking Tel Aviv and nearby areas with drones and ballistic missiles. Most of the drone attacks were repelled, but some ballistic missiles penetrated the air defense network and fell in the city center, reportedly injuring more than 35 people.

The main targets were nuclear-related facilities

The main areas attacked by Israel were nuclear-related areas such as the Revolutionary Guard headquarters in Tehran and uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that radioactive material was leaking from Natanz.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long stated his position that Iran’s nuclear facilities must be eliminated, and it appears that this operation was also carried out based on that political and strategic judgment.
Some analysts believe that the attack was a means of breaking the political deadlock surrounding Netanyahu’s cabinet. In fact, Israel had been hinting at the possibility of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities for several months, and there were signs of a premeditated strike, such as the US evacuation of diplomats and their families from the Middle East on June 11.

Why are Iran and Israel so hostile toward each other?

Iran and Israel were not originally hostile countries. Until the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the two countries maintained friendly relations, and Iran also had close cooperative relations with the US and Israel. However, after the Islamic Revolution, Iran denied Israel’s very existence as a state and designated it as a target to be eliminated from the Middle East.
Iran has indirectly attacked Israel through Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, and other groups.
In response, Israel has continued its efforts to ensure its security by significantly strengthening its military capabilities and acquiring nuclear weapons. If Iran were to possess nuclear weapons, Israel’s security strategy would be fundamentally shaken, and therefore, from Israel’s perspective, Iran’s nuclear development was unacceptable.

History of Iran’s Nuclear Development

Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s. At the time, it was intended for nuclear energy and scientific research purposes, in line with Iran’s friendly relations with the United States. Iran joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968, but began full-scale development of nuclear weapons during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Subsequently, in 2002, the United States revealed Iran’s secret nuclear development program and tightened sanctions.
In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between the US, the European Union, and Iran, but in 2018, President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, and negotiations broke down. Several attempts at renegotiation followed, but they were unsuccessful, and the current situation arose ahead of the sixth round of negotiations scheduled for June 15, 2025.

Thorough preparation, perfect timing

Israel has already spent years building an intelligence network inside Iran and identifying key military facilities and the movements of scientists. It appears that Israel judged that now was the optimal time to carry out its long-planned operation.
The weakening of Iran’s proxy forces also played a role in this decision. Following Hamas’s attack on Israel in 2023, the Gaza Strip was devastated, and Hamas effectively became an underground organization. Hezbollah also lost its leadership and was plagued by internal strife, and the collapse of the Assad regime cut off its weapons supply route through Syria. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have also been weakened by US attacks.
Iran’s economy has already been devastated by long-term sanctions, and its military air defense network and missile bases have been destroyed. From Israel’s perspective, a window of opportunity has opened.

The US position and future prospects

It appears that the US had prior knowledge of the attack. Former President Trump said, “We knew everything,” and urged Iran to come to the negotiating table. However, unless the US military is directly attacked, it is unlikely that the US will intervene militarily.
It is unclear whether Israel’s ultimate goal is to halt Iran’s nuclear program or to replace the regime.
However, judging from the nature of the attacks so far, there are signs that Israel’s intention goes beyond simply stopping Iran’s nuclear program and aims to destabilize the Iranian regime.

The possibility and limitations of Iran’s counterattack

Iran launched the attacks, but the damage and casualties were limited compared to Israel’s airstrikes. There has been talk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, but this is unrealistic. This is because a significant portion of the strait belongs to Omani territorial waters and is a passageway for essential goods and oil exports. A blockade would inevitably cause more harm than good.
Ultimately, US mediation appears to be the only solution, and recent remarks by the US ambassador to Israel also hint at a new turning point in US policy toward the Middle East. The statement that the US will not seek the establishment of a Palestinian state suggests a shift in US strategy toward the Middle East.

Is the peaceful world coming to an end?

The current conflict between Israel and Iran goes beyond a simple regional dispute and shows that the international political order is undergoing fundamental changes. Is the “peaceful world” we have come to know coming to an end? This situation may not be limited to the Middle East, but could be the beginning of global instability. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation going forward.