The 2016 Go match between Lee Sedol and AlphaGo sparked a surge of interest in artificial intelligence. We must explore the future of AI and ways for humans to coexist with it, while understanding and preparing for the impact its development will have on society.
AlphaGo vs. Lee Sedol: The Human vs. AI Showdown
March 9, 2016. The century’s Go match between human and computer began. Even before the match started, it generated daily buzz, and most people (84-93% based on online polls) predicted a decisive victory for Lee Sedol. But when the matches actually began, people were stunned. Even after AlphaGo won the first game, comments like “Lee Sedol was caught off guard” and “AlphaGo isn’t yet at a level where it can 100% defeat Lee Sedol 9-dan” were heard. However, after the second game concluded, the situation reversed to the point where Lee Sedol himself admitted, “Now there’s nothing left to say. It was a complete defeat in terms of content.” The final result was Lee Sedol’s 1:4 loss. After the matches concluded, people’s attention shifted not only to Lee Sedol and the Go world but also to artificial intelligence itself.
The most discussed topic was the future of artificial intelligence. The AlphaGo vs. Lee Sedol match took on expanded significance, being called a ‘showdown between humans and AI’. With AlphaGo winning the match, people naturally began projecting the future of AI. Predictions range from exaggerated notions of AI dominating humanity like in movies to more realistic concerns about AI taking human jobs. This essay will examine two phenomena: why this match captured such immense public interest, and the subsequent wave of predictions about AI’s future.
Artificial Intelligence: Why Did We Get So Excited About This Old Technology?
In truth, artificial intelligence is a technology that has been with us for quite some time. Even seemingly novel technologies like ‘deep learning’ are, upon closer inspection, already being used in our daily lives. For example, when you hover your mouse over a photo on Facebook and the name of the person in the photo automatically appears, that is Facebook’s ‘DeepFace’ technology, which applies deep learning. Furthermore, AI development began in the 1990s, making it a long-established technology with a significant history of advancement. Yet, we showed immense interest in the match between Lee Sedol and AlphaGo, and in the AI AlphaGo itself.
This was largely because Google presented AlphaGo in the format of a showdown. Tech giants like Google and Apple have poured enormous sums into advancing AI. However, the level of AI we actually encounter in daily life is consistently disappointing. For example, Apple’s Siri is not capable of conversing with a machine; it merely retrieves pre-programmed information, and even then, it often fails to meet user expectations.
Amidst this, the best way to spark global interest in AI is not by analyzing its capabilities and publishing papers, but by staging a showdown against humans. Indeed, even before the match, articles appeared stating AlphaGo’s Go skill was rated at ELO 3588 points, a record equivalent to world number two. Yet despite this numerical analysis, public opinion predicted Lee Sedol’s decisive victory. When Lee Sedol actually lost, articles began flooding in about the fear of artificial intelligence. This analysis diverges significantly from the AI we encounter in daily life, as mentioned earlier.
The reason for this analysis, as mentioned earlier, is that AlphaGo won the ‘showdown’ against Lee Sedol. This contest came to symbolize not just a battle between one program and one human, but a clash between ‘artificial intelligence’ and ‘humanity’. And this appears to be Google’s marketing strategy. While the practical application of artificial intelligence in daily life still has technical limitations, Google chose the time-tested tactic of pitting it against humans to draw attention to their research. This approach proved remarkably effective.
The Future of Artificial Intelligence: On Its Unpredictability
Humans have always been wary of the impact new technologies might have on us. When home computers first appeared, and when the internet first emerged, a significant number of futurists predicted which jobs would disappear within the next 20 years. That 20-year period is now. Accountants, which topped the list of jobs expected to vanish, still exist today, albeit in reduced numbers. Contrary to predictions that computers would replace accountants’ calculations and render the profession obsolete, accountants have maintained their relevance by performing higher-level analysis based on computer calculations. The same holds true for actors. When Deep Blue defeated the chess champion in the late 90s, futurists predicted that actors would disappear and cyber actors would emerge. Indeed, a company called ‘Square’ believed this and made massive investments in the cyber actor market. Unfortunately, actors still exist today (and their popularity has actually increased recently), while Square was later acquired. Interestingly, according to a recent paper by Oxford University professors Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, accountants ranked second (94%) and actors tenth (37%) among occupations most likely to disappear within 20 years. Of course, we cannot be certain this prediction is wrong. However, what is certain is that when Deep Blue defeated the chess champion in the late 90s and the internet began to be commercialized, futurists’ predictions that artificial intelligence would soon drastically change human society were already proven wrong once.
As past examples show, the development of artificial intelligence is highly likely to proceed in unpredictable directions. Whenever new technology emerges, we either fear or anticipate its impact on our lives, yet it remains difficult to predict how the technology will actually develop and in what ways it will affect our daily routines. This holds true for artificial intelligence as well. While we should be cautious and avoid scenarios where AI develops into ‘strong AI’ with self-awareness, it seems unwise to hastily judge the future and blindly fear artificial intelligence.
However, the prediction that AI’s advancement will inevitably lead to the disappearance of certain occupations holds some validity. Historically, the emergence of new technologies has repeatedly caused some jobs to vanish while simultaneously creating new ones. AI is also expected to undergo this process. Nevertheless, the speed and scope of these changes are difficult to predict, and their resulting social impacts will likely be highly diverse.
Conclusion: Seeking Coexistence Between Artificial Intelligence and Humans
The advancement of artificial intelligence will undoubtedly bring significant changes to our society. To prepare for these changes, rather than fearing technological progress, we need an attitude of understanding and adapting accordingly. It is crucial to keep an open mind about the various possibilities of how artificial intelligence might transform human life and to prepare social and economic countermeasures accordingly.
Therefore, we must avoid excessive fear or unconditional optimism about AI’s future and instead seek ways to coexist with AI from a realistic perspective. This is a task for all of us, requiring an active approach to the changes AI’s development will bring.
Preparing for coexistence with AI extends beyond mere technological advancement. Changes are needed across diverse areas such as education, policy, and social structures, and these changes are tasks we must all collectively create. To ensure AI positively impacts our society, we must continuously learn, adapt, and lead the change.
