This blog post aims to calmly analyze the background behind President Trump’s demand for the Maduro regime’s immediate resignation and the underlying military, resource, and geopolitical calculations driving it.
President Trump of the United States has effectively delivered an ultimatum to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The demand was for him to immediately resign from the presidency. However, President Maduro did not comply, instead presenting several negotiation proposals that appear to be attempts to buy time. The U.S. interpreted this stance as a rejection of the ultimatum and has since moved to take concrete action. This blog post aims to examine this matter in a more organized sequence.
In fact, President Trump’s ultimatum was reportedly delivered last week. The U.S. set a deadline of November 28, 2025, demanding President Maduro immediately resign and leave Venezuela to seek exile. The proposal also included a guarantee of his life and that of his family if he accepted these terms. However, President Maduro rejected this and attempted to negotiate by presenting three demands.
His first demand was for a full international amnesty guaranteeing immunity for himself and his associates for various acts of corruption and human rights abuses they had committed. Second, he requested that while he would step down from the presidency, he be allowed to retain command of the military for a certain period. Finally, he stated that a sudden resignation could cause chaos in Venezuela, proposing instead a gradual exit over a grace period of approximately three years. This was interpreted as a calculated proposal, considering that President Trump’s term would end in three years.
Ultimately, the U.S. judged this stance as a clear rejection of the ultimatum, blocking any further possibility of negotiation. The first measure the U.S. took thereafter was the closure of Venezuelan airspace. Simultaneously, Russia also appeared to have obtained relevant information and began hastening the evacuation of its citizens. Venezuela attempted to resume negotiations with the U.S., but the U.S. maintained a stance of effectively ignoring these efforts.
Subsequently, on December 1, 2025, President Trump convened an emergency National Security Council (NSC) meeting at the White House to discuss military response options targeting Venezuela. Key figures in the U.S. security establishment, including the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all attended this meeting. CBS News analyzed that this meeting, held amid escalating pressure on the Maduro regime, was intended to determine the next course of action.
Air traffic over Venezuela is currently effectively suspended. Countries worldwide are canceling flights to Venezuela one after another, and Spain has also banned flights over Venezuelan airspace. The U.S. has already attacked Venezuelan vessels suspected of drug trafficking in the Caribbean since last September, killing at least 80 people. It has also intensified military pressure by designating President Maduro as a key figure in an international drug-terrorism organization and deploying the world’s largest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike group to waters near Venezuela.
The current U.S. troop deployment in the Caribbean stands at approximately 15,000 personnel, the highest level in 30 years. Prevailing analysis suggests the U.S. objective extends beyond mere drug interdiction to the collapse of the Maduro regime. However, many assessments indicate this troop level remains insufficient for a full-scale invasion. During the 1989 invasion of Panama, the U.S. deployed approximately 24,000 to 27,000 troops, collapsing the regime in a short period. Venezuela has a much larger land area than Panama and a larger military, making an identical operation difficult.
However, Venezuela is located within the U.S.‘s strategic sphere of influence, offering ample room for rapid deployment of additional forces from the mainland. Support capabilities from the Navy and Air Force are also sufficient. Particularly, if the operation the U.S. aims for is not a full-scale war but rather a leadership removal and capture operation akin to a so-called ‘decapitation strike,’ analysis suggests it could be executed solely with air power, without the need for large-scale ground troop deployment.
The problem lies in the situation following regime collapse. Should the central government crumble, national security would likely collapse rapidly. Venezuela already has a structure entangled with cartels, militias, and informal armed groups. The moment the regime disappears, these forces would likely scramble to seize control of their respective territories. This could lead to nationwide armed conflict and massive chaos.
A massive refugee crisis would also be inevitable. With millions already fleeing abroad due to economic collapse, the additional collapse of the regime could cause the social, economic, and security burdens on neighboring countries, particularly along the borders with Colombia and Brazil, to explode. Furthermore, the process of establishing a new government is unlikely to achieve stable integration easily, given the conflicting interests among the military, cartels, and political factions. Should Russia and China intervene, the possibility of a new geopolitical clash between the US, China, and Russia unfolding in the heart of South America cannot be ruled out.
Venezuela’s military capabilities alone are not sufficient for a direct confrontation with the United States. A significant portion of its weapons are decades-old Russian-made models, and their maintenance status is poor. Soldiers’ salaries fall short of basic living expenses, and they lack both combat experience and adequate training. However, should a full-scale war erupt, there is a possibility that the military could disintegrate and disperse, launching a protracted guerrilla war.
While the United States officially cites blocking drug flows originating from Venezuela as its justification, critics point out that this argument lacks persuasiveness, given that a significant portion of drugs entering the U.S. mainland actually transits through Mexico. Consequently, interpretations suggesting the U.S.’s true objectives are Venezuela’s vast oil resources and weakening anti-American forces in South America are gaining traction. Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and large oil fields have recently been discovered in the disputed territory with Guyana. The fact that the companies extracting oil in this region are American is also seen as not unrelated to U.S. strategic calculations.
Ultimately, the Venezuela issue is not merely a matter of one nation’s internal affairs, but a matter that could have significant repercussions for the entire South American order and the international situation. While the actual possibility of an invasion remains uncertain, assessments suggest the current situation resembles the tense phase immediately preceding the Ukraine war. The potential for the U.S.’s future choices to shake up the global situation once again appears substantial.
