This blog post examines whether humanity can prevent a Third World War based on the lessons of two world wars, exploring its possibility and the future nature of warfare.
Looking back at human history, war has been an essential component of human civilization. Since the concept of surplus production was introduced, conflicts large and small have never ceased. War has developed alongside human civilization and grown within it. For example, after unifying Japan, Toyotomi Hideyoshi sought to resolve internal turmoil by turning outward, invading Korea and sparking the Imjin War. Beyond this, numerous historical examples exist where oppressed commoners rose up to initiate revolutions. Wars driven by such diverse objectives have been continuously recorded throughout history.
The two world wars represent the pinnacle of human warfare. Both World War I and World War II were events triggered not only by their apparent causes but also by the circumstances of their times. Before World War I, industrial and commercial competition between nations intensified starting in 1871. Germany’s economy grew rapidly, surpassing Britain’s around 1914. This created a crisis where Germany threatened to seize leadership of the global economy. This triggered confrontation between Germany and Britain. As other nations, including France, entered the economic competition, large-scale conflict erupted. World War II erupted as radical political forces gained popular support during the Great Depression, intensifying conflicts between nations. The League of Nations system proved inadequate, disarmament attempts failed, and the inability to correct treaty violations by radical forces deepened imperialist tendencies.
Observing today’s international situation, we live in an atmosphere not significantly different from that during the First and Second World Wars. Those world wars originated from confrontations between nations over economic dominance, and today, many nations are still engaged in fierce competition to gain an advantage in global trade. Corporations representing nations engage in legal battles to secure patent rights, while actions like North Korea’s nuclear tests, missile provocations, and the Yeonpyeong Island shelling threaten international peace. These situations create tension within the international community and foster anxiety about the possibility of war breaking out. Within this current international landscape, which mirrors past patterns, the possibility of a Third World War cannot be entirely ruled out.
What form would a Third World War take? In the two previous world wars, humanity lost approximately 10 million and over 24 million soldiers, respectively, with war costs reaching $185 billion and $1.6 trillion. This provides a basis for estimating the devastation humanity would endure in a third world war. Particularly now, with the advancement of science and technology leading to the development of nuclear weapons, a Third World War would likely take the form of nuclear warfare. If the United States were to attack China with nuclear missiles, Peacekeeper missiles would be launched toward Beijing. These missiles carry ten 500-kiloton nuclear warheads, capable of obliterating Beijing and nearby major cities. This means a single attack could wipe out over 100 million people. If a nuclear war involving dozens of nuclear exchanges were to occur, humanity might suffer the worst casualties in history. Ultimately, if a Third Nuclear World War breaks out, humanity would leave no trace on Earth.
Given the anticipated immense devastation, World War III is highly likely to unfold differently than past conflicts. War, as we know it, is typically defined as an organized armed struggle or violent act to impose the will of one nation upon another. However, considering the possibility that World War III could take a different form, the definition of war needs to be broadly revised. Even today, we can easily find various confrontations resembling quasi-war states. In 2018, the US and China engaged in a trade war, exchanging tariff bombs, and we witnessed the international community pressuring North Korea through economic sanctions in response to its nuclear tests. Therefore, we must not limit war solely to armed conflict and violent acts but extend our judgment to include economic and social struggles. When we adopt a broad definition of war, we can see that World War III is either already underway or has a very high probability of breaking out.
So, what scenarios could unfold for World War III? First, war only occurs when the benefits gained from it outweigh the losses. For example, the world is currently tense over North Korea’s nuclear issue. Subduing North Korea and achieving global peace might not be particularly difficult, but it would require accepting the enormous losses incurred in the process. Therefore, the likelihood of World War III leading to armed conflict is low, and there is also the possibility it could occur in space rather than on Earth. Space, not yet fully explored by humanity, could become a new frontier of opportunity, and armed conflict over space resources could erupt.
Second, humanity has steadily developed its understanding of peace. The recent violence and bloodshed against civilians in the Gaza Strip drew significant global attention and prompted warnings from the International Criminal Court (ICC). This confirms that World War III is unlikely to occur through the use of force. Instead, non-military warfare like trade wars, economic sanctions, and cyber warfare is more likely. As seen in the 2017 ransomware attacks that shook the world, cyber warfare can paralyze financial networks and military systems. If control is seized through DDoS attacks, a nation may appear intact on the surface but effectively collapse internally.
We have examined the causes and nature of war and concluded that the likelihood of World War III erupting as a physical armed conflict is low. Instead, wars involving economic or informational damage are highly probable, posing a serious threat to humanity’s universal values, no less severe than physical warfare. In this context, humanity must come together to seek solutions for global peace.
