This blog post discusses how to establish long-term value and direction without being swayed by short-term results.

We must all become long-term thinkers

Many people dream of ‘success,’ but when and how that success arrives varies for each individual. Some achieve noticeable results quickly, while others reach their goals gradually through sustained effort over time. But what truly matters is ‘which type of success is more sustainable.’ Rather than relying on short-term luck, we should become ‘long-termists’ who walk steadily with a long-term perspective.

The Limitations of Short-Termism, The Power of Long-Termism

Even if a short-termist luckily achieves results, they are highly likely to experience a probabilistic decline over time. This is because temporary success often leads to complacency and misjudgment. Conversely, the long-termist endures short-term fluctuations and temptations, ultimately achieving inevitable results.
Long-termism particularly demonstrates its power in the world of investing. Only those who endure periodic market volatility, temporary drops in returns, and emotional investment withdrawals reap the reward of ‘final value realization’. And that value inevitably grows like a snowball over time.

The Implications of Compound Interest

The power of long-term thinking is often illustrated using the ‘magic of compound interest’. Let’s run a simple simulation. Suppose you are 25 years old and invest $100,000 in a compounding product yielding 20% annual returns. By age 45, after 20 years, that asset grows to approximately $3.8 million. Another 20 years later, at age 65, it reaches a staggering $910 million. The single condition is “if you hold it without selling.”
Of course, achieving a stable 20% annual return in reality is not easy. It’s merely an ideal assumption. So, what if we calculate using a 10% annual return? Holding it for 50 years yields approximately 117 times the return. This is precisely the most powerful gift time gives us.

What is the true meaning of ‘long-term’?

Many people misunderstand the term ‘long-term’ as simply a matter of time length. They ask, “Is 5 years? 10 years? 20 years enough?” But in reality, ‘long-term’ is not a concept that can be measured merely in years.
‘Long-term’ must be viewed based on the developmental cycles of all things in the world. It is a mindset that uses a “parabolic curve of cycles” as its unit, rather than signifying a specific period. In other words, what matters more is not the ‘length’ of time, but the cycle the subject undergoes as time passes.

Life Cycles and the Parabola of Time

Everything in the world exists along the parabola of time. For example, an apple tree sprouts in spring, grows in summer, bears fruit in autumn, and enters dormancy in winter. Then it repeats that cycle. This is a form of ‘life cycle’.
Businesses are no different. They trace a temporal parabola through stages of founding, growth, maturity, and decline. Stocks, love, trends, business ventures—no phenomenon can escape this cycle. Therefore, having a long-term perspective means not merely enduring for a long time, but understanding the cycle an object follows and possessing the insight to survey the overall flow.

Long-termists must become ‘prophets’

To become a true long-termist requires more than mere patience. It demands the ability to see through the developmental context of things—to read the ‘direction of value’. Only by predicting which path will prove the right choice in the long run can one advance unwaveringly.
If the direction is set wrong, the consequences compound into greater losses over time. Even the smallest difference inevitably widens into a vast gap as time passes. Just as a course deviating by one degree leads to a completely different destination thousands of kilometers later.
Therefore, a long-termist isn’t merely someone who ‘sticks it out like a bull’; they must first become a ‘prophet’. Only by correctly reading the future can one sustain the long-term journey without abandoning it.

Reading trends isn’t everything. But it’s essential.

The conclusion is clear. Accurately reading trends doesn’t guarantee success for everyone, but to succeed, one must be able to read trends. Conversely, not all failures stem from failing to read trends, but ignoring trends inevitably leads to failure.
But this is never easy. Even seasoned experts who have been in business for years often collapse because they fail to predict trends accurately. Some read trends well based on their extensive experience and achieve success, while others become overly fixated on their own ideas and end up falling out of step with the times.

‘Holding on’ alone is insufficient

I recently came across this statement:

“The greatest risk begins when you add ‘leverage’. Without leverage, there is no risk. The only loss comes from missed gains. If we don’t sell and just hold on, we won’t lose anything.”

While this may sound logical and appealing on the surface, it hides a dangerous illusion. The statement “if you don’t sell, it’s not a loss” merely means the paper loss hasn’t been realized—the actual value may have vanished. For example, can you say “it’s not a loss because I still hold shares” of a company that’s already bankrupt? Of course, you might still technically be a shareholder of that company, but the intrinsic value of those shares is effectively close to zero.
Ultimately, ‘holding on’ and ‘holding meaningfully’ are entirely different matters. Long-termism isn’t blind endurance; it’s maintaining direction with conviction, guided by a clear sense of value.

Long-term and Long-termism: The Subtle Difference

Finally, there’s one point I want to emphasize.
‘Long-term’ and ‘long-termism’ are different concepts. In some ways, they can even be completely opposite. Long-term is a concept based on the passage of time, i.e., ‘until when’. Long-termism is a philosophy where the emphasis is on what value to pursue within that time.
If long-term is merely a unit of time, long-termism concerns the direction and attitude of life. Ultimately, becoming a long-termist means not just enduring time, but becoming someone capable of making choices that advance toward the right values.

In Closing

I hope you, reading this blog post, can become someone who focuses on long-term value without being swayed by short-term results. A long-termist is not merely someone who endures for a long time. It is someone who sees through to the future, believes that today’s choices create tomorrow’s value, and acts accordingly.
So I ask you.
Where are you looking right now? At short-term results, or at long-term value?
Right now, in this moment, begin your journey as a long-termist.
At the end of that path, unexpected rewards and achievements will be waiting.