In this blog post, we will examine the possibility of a third party in the United States and the changes in the political landscape, focusing on Elon Musk’s announcement of the formation of a new political party.
On July 5, 2024, Elon Musk announced on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he would form a new political party called the America Party. Why did he choose this moment to announce the formation of a new party? And is he serious?
Musk has been highly critical of the tax cut bill recently passed by the US House of Representatives. This is because the tax cut plan includes provisions that could be detrimental to Tesla. Although it was explained as a measure to improve the financial health of the United States, from Musk’s perspective, it could only be seen as a decision that would harm his companies, especially Tesla. A prime example of this is the provision that aims to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This bill provided a $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of eco-friendly cars, but after the tax cut plan was passed, this benefit was reduced or abolished. Unlike other car companies that produce both internal combustion engine cars and electric cars, Tesla only produces electric cars, so the relative damage is inevitably greater. In addition, the “regulatory credit non-compliance penalty” was also abolished.
These regulatory credits are a system established by the federal and state governments to encourage the spread of eco-friendly cars, whereby companies that fail to produce a certain percentage of electric vehicles must pay a fine or purchase credits from other companies. Tesla had been earning revenue by selling excess credits to companies such as Stellantis, but with the abolition of this system, it has lost a major source of revenue.
In addition, tax credits for Tesla’s flagship solar battery business have also been abolished. As a result, Tesla’s sales structure has been severely damaged. This has also affected Musk’s personal business interests. In the past, he tried to appoint his close associate and SpaceX’s private partner, Zed Isaacman, as NASA administrator, but the nomination was withdrawn due to concerns about conflicts of interest and political conflicts.
There were also voices of opposition within the Republican Party, which served to worsen his relationship with President Trump.
This series of events likely led Musk to believe that his trust in the Republican Party had been broken. In particular, during the 2020 presidential election, he donated nearly $300 million to Trump and the Republican Party. This is one of the largest donations ever made by an individual in US history.
Some believe that Musk’s support contributed greatly to Trump’s victory in the Rust Belt region, especially in Pennsylvania. Nevertheless, the lack of political reward must have been disappointing for him.
On July 4, Independence Day, he conducted an online poll on X, asking, “Should we break away from the two-party system?”
Approximately 1.24 million people participated, and 65% responded “yes.” Of course, this survey was conducted among Elon Musk’s followers, so the results may be biased, but various statistics confirm that the American people are growing tired of the two-party system.
Since 2003, a majority of Americans have agreed with the need for a third party in numerous polls, and in a 2023 Pew Research survey, 25% of respondents said that neither the Democratic nor Republican parties represent their views. More than half of respondents said they wanted a new party.
Musk has set a goal of securing 23 seats in the Senate and 810 seats in the House of Representatives in the next midterm elections. However, the feasibility of this goal is questionable. This is because the United States has long maintained a strong two-party system of the Democratic and Republican parties, and the emergence of a third party is extremely rare.
In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt founded the Progressive Party and ran for president for the third time, but only won 27.4% of the vote. In the early 20th century, some socialist parties won seats in Congress, but in recent years, there have been almost no cases of independent or third-party candidates being elected.
This is due to the US electoral system. The US has adopted a “first-past-the-post” system, which is similar to South Korea’s constituency-based election system, but because there is no proportional representation system, the barriers to entry for small parties are very high.
As a result, voters tend to vote strategically, choosing one of the two candidates from the two major parties who is most likely to win, rather than voting for a third-party candidate they support.
As a result, the support rate for third parties is structurally limited and not properly reflected in actual politics.
In addition, in order to register as a political party or candidate in the United States, a certain number of voter signatures must be obtained. For example, in California, approximately 75,000 signatures are required. The major parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, are exempt from these requirements, but newly formed parties must go through the entire process.
Even if Musk has sufficient funds, it is not easy to find candidates nationwide and provide them with financial support. Running a political party requires organizational management that goes beyond individual fan bases and the expansion of the voter base.
Elon Musk’s political potential is also limited, as shown by opinion polls. According to a recent survey, 40% of respondents said they would “support Elon Musk,” but it remains to be seen whether this will translate into actual votes. In addition, more than 60% of Americans still identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans.
Only 26% believe that a third party can solve the country’s problems, and few believe that a third-party candidate can defeat either of the two major candidates. Musk’s unfavorability rating is also a stumbling block. According to a recent Nate Silver poll, Musk’s unfavorability rating stands at 55%, while his favorability rating is only 36.9%. His unfavorability rating is high not only among Democratic supporters but also among independents.
Political parties cannot survive on fandom alone. They must differentiate themselves from the Republican and Democratic parties while securing the support of a broader range of voters. Nevertheless, Musk’s new party has the potential to influence the political landscape in the short term. In the 2024 elections, 16 seats in the House and Senate were decided by a margin of less than 2%. If Musk’s party runs in these competitive districts, it could be a decisive factor in the election results.
In this case, it is more likely that the Republican Party will suffer losses. Therefore, Musk’s party could act as a political movement that puts pressure on both the Democratic and Republican parties.
However, what really matters is not simply its presence, but what kind of agenda it can put forward. During the 2016 presidential election, former President Trump captured the hearts of voters by expressing in popular language topics that existing politicians did not mention.
It remains to be seen whether Elon Musk can demonstrate such popular appeal and political insight. The agenda he has outlined, including small government, fiscal soundness, flexible immigration policies, and the promotion of green technology, is certainly compelling, but it remains to be seen whether he can give the impression that he truly understands the pressing issues facing American society.
Nevertheless, because it is Elon Musk, there are those who see possibilities different from existing third parties. If Musk’s new party achieves meaningful results in the next midterm elections and establishes itself as a third party, the confrontation with former President Trump could become even clearer. Who will emerge victorious in this political battle between two of the most influential figures in the world?
